NA and EU LCS Week 3: Stats, Analysis, and Predictions

Feb 4, 2016
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Rather than conducting weekly Power Rankings, I will be doing a statistical analysis of the LCS teams. This week’s article will take a look at the stats from Week 3 and will be used to forecast the following week’s outcomes.

I’ll start by providing the graphic with the statistics and follow it with an explanation and a breakdown.

The Stats

The Stats
The average rating is equal to 1.

The far left column is the total score of each team which is the sum of the score from each individual role.The far right column will represent the statistical ranking of teams.

Individual Scores

Individual scores are calculated by comparing the players stats in four different categories to the average of all players in that role. If a player is average in all categories, they should have a score of 1. If they’re above average they will have a score in a category greater than one and if they’re lower than average they will have a score less than one.

Using the Individual scores, we will take a look at a few teams and try to understand why their performing at their levels.

Immortals

Each player on the Immortals are producing stats far above the average. This is mostly likely due to their current 6-0 performance. With such low deaths and explosive games, their stats will remain inflated until they are challenged or even defeated. Still, we can see that Reignover is performing quite well. While he has yet to have a weak performance, Pobelter’s stats would imply that he might be the soft target of the seemingly untouchable Immortals.

For teams approaching the Immortals, high awareness of Reignover’s presence and increased pressure on Pobelter might be the way to expose some vulnerabilities.

Team Liquid

teamliquidTheir 3-3 record might not show it but TL has some of the statistically strongest performers between both regions. Lourlo and Matt have been very aggressive players in their most recent games cause a small fall in their stats but their sacrifices have allowed their carries to truly flourish. If TL’s macro play comes together and their players can continue to build their cohesion then TL should find many wins coming their way.

Origen

OrigenWe have all seen Origen perform at their peak during last year’s Worlds. Since then, they have not lived up to their audience’s standards. A 3-3 record after 3 weeks is questionable for a Worlds semifinalist team and many attribute this to the xPeke and PowerOfEvil transaction. PowerOfEvil’s score is sitting at an impressive 4.2 while Soaz and Amazing both are producing below average stats. Perhaps the previous top, mid and jungle trio had better synergy with xPeke but to blame PowerOfEvil entirely would be a mistake Origen cannot afford to make.

Team Impulse

TIP was predicted to be at the bottom of the tier but has proven many teams wrong in a very impressive way. TIP’s three-game substitute, Seraph, has been creating havoc for their opponents on the Rift. It will be curious to see how the team continues to perform without their all-star substitute carrying the team to victory. Without Seraph’s massive rating contribution, TIP would be a bottom tier team falling somewhere just below Team Dignitas.

Cloud9

cloud9Sneaky is under performing?! Any C9 fan would tell me this is absolute blasphemy and wouldn’t let me hear the end of it. Sneaky’s stats are far below average but looking into why tells a different story. Rush, Jensen and Balls are all above average in their roles in gold earned per minute while Sneaky is below average by a considerable amount. A quick explanation could be that C9 is not giving Sneaky the resources needed to farm and carry the game. The addition of Jensen and Rush might have changed the team’s priorities just enough to set off their winning formula.

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ROCCAT

roccatROC has had shining moments and some rough moments. Their team is suffering from issues across the entire board but most noticeable is the performance of their bot lane. Their bot lane has the lowest combined score of any other bot lane. ROC is not blind to this trend and have already taken action to bring up their numbers by replacing Safir with Tabzz. With games against FNC and UOL lined up for Week 4, winning won’t be impossible but it also will not come easy.

Week 4 Predictions

stats week 4 forecast
Left: Match up win chance. Right: Week 4 record stats forecast.

Using each team’s score, I have created a simple chart using ratios to show each team’s statistical chances of beating one another in their upcoming matches. While a .48/.52 ratio might not be that big of a difference in the case of TIP vs. CLG, it might be just enough to predict the outcomes.

Closing

This concludes this week’s statistical analysis. Comments, feedback, questions can be sent to phischer@esportsedition.com

If you would like a certain team or player to be analyzed in the upcoming weeks, feel free to send your requests as well.

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Phischer Stanley
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Phischer spends much of his time at his computer investing hours into League of Legends. Whether its playing, following the competitive scene or doing analysis, he always finds enjoyment in eSports.
What do you think?
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ayy lmao

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Nice.

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Meh.

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No.

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Whoa!

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