Rather than conducting weekly Power Rankings, I will be doing a statistical analysis of the LCS teams. This week’s article will take a look at the stats from Week 6 and will be used to analyze and discuss particular teams. The last discussion can be found here.
Before diving into discussion, I’ll provide the graphic with each teams ratings.
NA and EU LCS Team Ratings
For those of you who need a visual, you can find this information in a graph here.
The far left column is the team’s rating which is the average of the individual player ratings.
Individual ratings are calculated by comparing the players stats in four different categories to the average of all players in that role. If a player is average in all categories, they should have a rating of 1. If they’re above average they will have a rating in a category greater than one and if they’re lower than average they will have a rating less than one.
Using the Individual ratings, we will take a look at a few teams and try to understand why they’re performing at their levels.
4/5 Top Teams are from EU
These four teams are leading the way in Europe and a match between any of these four teams could go either way. Statistically, VIT and UOL might be a half tier below G2 and H2K but we have seen plenty of upsets in the past week (FNC vs G2?!). All of the above are playoff contenders and 3 of these teams are likely to represent EU at Worlds this year. While none of these team’s ratings are remotely close to IMT, none of these teams have had a chance to play against IMT in regular season. Additionally, there are no H2K or G2 comparable teams in the NA LCS to really take down the Immortals. With the exception of IMT, the upper tiers of EU are much more competitive than that of NA.
Cloud9 Moves Into Rank 6
In past weeks C9 has been hovering in the high middle region in about the 7-10th positions which is impressive considering two regions. Historically, their top lane, Balls, has had a below average rating of about 0.9. In this past weekend Balls had a very strong performance, out performing his own team statistically giving the team’s rating a well needed boost. This success puts them just behind UOL and comfortably above NA favorites, TSM and CLG. If the team can maintain and improve their current level of play they might be the team to take a win over Immortals in playoffs.
Team Liquid on the Decline
Losing to FOX and IMT this past weekend caused TL’s rating to tank. TL went from holding the 5th highest rating to barely holding on to 9th. Each lane’s rating took a hit after their loses but since following TL, their top lane, Lourlo has held a bottom 5 rating. Lourlo on paper is by far the weakest link on TL. Whatever action TL decides to take moving forward, if they don’t find a solution for their top lane they could struggle through playoffs.
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Holy welcome back Froggen. Since FOX has had their entire roster they have moved from 19th to 10th highest rating. The statistics use weighted averages ((6/11)*Froggen) so in the time the full roster has been back there have been insane improvements. It would seem that FOX has a good shot at making playoffs considering they share the same record as TL already. 4 of their next 6 matches are going to be against teams with better records than their own so we will see if they’re truly a contender in these next few weeks.
Looking at the ratings its hard to believe that FNC went 1-1. For those of you who missed the games, Fnatic had their butts kicked two games in a row but managed to snag a win off of G2. If not for G2 walking right into Rekkles’s full-build Kog’maw 38 minutes into the game G2 would have taken the game. Regardless FNC took the win and proved that in some cases resilience and team team fighting can demolish statistics. The win over G2 could be just the win to secure them the 6th spot in the playoffs. Moving forward, Fnatic needs to find dramatic improvement for a shot at Worlds.
These are matches that are likely to have high impact on the ratings or are likely to cause a team to climb or fall.
H2K vs FNC and OG vs G2
If FNC or OG want any shot at securing a slot at Worlds they will need to prove they can consistently match or even beat any of the top four EU teams. This week will provide them this opportunity.
FOX vs TSM and TL vs TSM
If FOX or TL takes the win over TSM, that team is likely to move into TSM’s position . On the contrary, a win for TSM should lock in their top 4 position.
C9 vs CLG
The outcome of this match will determine the number 2 team in NA since both of these teams are very close in competing for that slot. How will Balls compare to Darshan?